Oscar not hard to handicap

It’s that time of year again — Hollywood is waiting with bated breath for the Oscar nominations to be announced.

If it seems a little early for this annual rite of winter, it is. Oscar nominations aren’t usually made public until the second Tuesday in February. This year, the picks will be released Jan. 27, just a little over a month before the Feb. 29 Academy Awards ceremony. Ostensibly, the early date is to discourage the usual gauche ad campaigns ("We wish the Academy to consider Frankie Muniz for …").

Everyone already knows this year’s Oscar drama circles around Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. Will it finally win? Cold Mountain, Lost in Translation and Mystic River appear to be the frontrunners to compete with the fantasy trilogy finale. Peter Weir’s rousing yet intelligent Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World probably will take the fifth slot, but could be supplanted by Seabiscuit or several other well-received films.

In the acting awards, Sean Penn is almost as sure a bet as LOTR to go all the way, but Bill Murray has won many critics awards and could go home with the prize. He will likely at least get a nomination.

The other nominees — as in most years — probably will be the usual suspects. Movie lovers will anticipate any exceptions. The most interesting category should be Best Actress. And before anyone predicts it unlikely that Scarlett Johansson will be nominated, remember that not only has she won several major awards for Lost in Translation, but also two Golden Globe nominations this year (her other was for Best Actress in a Motion Picture: Drama for Girl with a Pearl Earring).

Here are my predictions for what names Oscar will call later this month.

Best Picture:

Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

Cold Mountain

Lost in Translation

Mystic River

Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World

Best Actor:

Sean Penn, Mystic River

Russell Crowe, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World

Bill Murray, Lost in Translation

Jack Nicholson, Something’s Gotta Give

Ben Kingsley, House of Sand and Fog

Best Actress:

Nicole Kidman, Cold Mountain

Scarlett Johansson, Lost in Translation

Diane Keaton, Something’s Gotta Give

Charlize Theron, Monster

Keisha Castle-Hughes, Whale Rider

Best Supporting Actor:

Alec Baldwin, The Cooler

Tim Robbins, Mystic River

Eugene Levy, A Mighty Wind

Albert Finney, Big Fish

Benicio Del Toro, 21 Grams

Best Supporting Actress:

Shohreh Aghdashloo, House of Sand and Fog

Patricia Clarkson, Pieces of April

Marcia Gay Harden, Mystic River

Holly Hunter, Thirteen

Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain

Best Director:

Peter Jackson, Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

Clint Eastwood, Mystic River

Anthony Minghella, Cold Mountain

Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation

Jim Sheridan, In America