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Funny how often we think of some of the things our parents used to say on certain occasions. My mom always sang “April Showers” throughout this month, especially when it rained. I don’t know whether Mom really believed those April showers would bring May flowers, but she sang as if she believed it. My wife could tell you I like to sing the song in Al Jolson’s style. She is not a fan of the Cardella-Jolson version (if you’re asking who is Al Jolson, your great grandson will get revenge on you someday by asking “Who is Frank Sinatra?”). There’s been nothing but showers in this primary election season, and I’m far from optimistic that May will drop a floral bouquet on the scene.
I can’t imagine the Republican Convention in Cleveland being anything but stormy. Donald Trump is not going to go away. He will not exit the political scene quietly if he does not win the Republican nomination for President. As an old boss once described one of my colleagues from whom I was seeking workplace advice, Donald Trump is a “fountain of misinformation.” I know he has an undergraduate’s degree from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. No reflection on that fine institution, but I offer you my condolences. He has also mentioned numerous times he has an uncle who graduated from MIT. Trump incredibly does not understand the system by which the Republican Party selects its nominee. I use the word “incredibly” because one would think if you were going to spend time and your own money (for the most part) getting involved in the Republican primaries, you would at least take the time to understand the system by which a nominee ends up selected. For instance, Trump doesn’t understand how he could win the vote in the Louisiana Republican Primary and lose the delegate count. “Isn’t this a democracy?” he rails. Actually the answer is “no” when it comes to either of our political parties’ primary system (the Democrats less so than the Republicans given their use of super delegates). Trump is suing to win the 10 Louisiana delegates he believes were unfairly given to rival Ted Cruz. Trump is the master of nonsense lawsuits. He has threatened more lawsuits than he has ties made in China. If he loses the nomination, he will undoubtedly add another lawsuit to his collection.
For Donald Trump’s information, (I understand Trump gets my column delivered to his door in Mar-A-Lago), it’s all about the delegates, not the popular vote. Each state decides how it will apportion delegates. Note: Trump mistakenly blames the Republican Party instead of the individual states for the way delegates are won. He also thinks the number needed to win, 1,237, has been mysteriously plucked out of the air. Actually that number simply represents exactly half plus one of the number of delegates elected to the Republican Convention. If Trump doesn’t win the necessary delegates prior to the convention, party rules provide for balloting until a candidate reaches that number. Failure to reach that digit on the first ballot means delegates are free to vote for whomever they wish on the second ballot, and so forth until one candidate reaches the total of 1,237 and claims the nomination. This is not as complicated as figuring out why we still need NATO, but somehow Trump hasn’t figured it out.
The Democrats will meet here in Philadelphia and while their convention will lack the volatility of the Republicans’, they will experience some “showers” of their own. Bernie Sanders’ chances of winning the nomination over Hillary Clinton are about the same as me winning an argument with my Uncle Nunzio, which is to say, almost nil. But Bernie will not go quietly, nor should he. Sanders has not much more loyalty to the Democratic Party than Trump has for the Republicans. He became a Democrat by necessity last year, in order to win that party’s nomination for President. Sanders correctly knew if he took the path of running as a third-party candidate, he was doomed to be just a spoiler. He has made the most of his opportunity, but whether his success at pushing Clinton’s agenda to the left is a net plus or minus is open to question. He will likely argue for his agenda to become part of the Democratic Party platform also. Winning presidential candidates normally move politically to the center in the general election because America has been essentially a center-right or center-left country at various times in its recent history. It is highly likely Sanders’ success will prevent Clinton from campaigning as a centrist in the general election for fear of losing Bernie’s ardent supporters. No matter how one feels about Sanders’ politics, they will be of necessity at the forefront of Clinton’s campaign. Bernie’s emphasis has been on domestic economic policy, but if there are more terrorist attacks by November, national security may become the issue that concerns more Americans than Wall Street.
Of course with Trump raining on the Republican parade, the Democrats may not need to worry about whether their candidate tilts too far left in the general election. Trump is like one of those nasty low pressure systems that won’t cast out to sea.
Uncle Nunzi counsels everyone to carry an umbrella to the polls in November. ■
