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Best Supporting Actress
Sally Hawkins, the somewhat surprising nominee for “Blue Jasmine,” deserves to be here just as much “August: Osage County” star Julia Roberts, who’s recognized for her meatiest work since “Erin Brockovich.” But both will have to settle with nominations alone, as this category comes down to June Squibb of “Nebraska,” Jennifer Lawrence of “American Hustle,” and Lupita Nyong’o of “12 Years a Slave.” Playing a foul-mouthed, yet stealthily supportive Midwestern wife, Squibb has the veteran’s advantage, while Lawrence, a superstar excelling as a con man’s moll, grabs hold of viewer attention with both of her cleaning-glove-wearing hands. But the award is going to go to Nyong’o, who not only bears the burden of her film’s harshest brutalities, but has emerged as the standout ingenue of the season.
Will win: Lupita Nyong’o
Could Win: Jennifer Lawrence
Should win: Nyong’o
Best Supporting Actor
Supporting Actor is the most frustrating race to discuss, even though there’s little discussion to be had, seeing as “Dallas Buyers Club” star Jared Leto has this trophy in the bag. What’s irksome isn’t merely that Bradley Cooper (“American Hustle”), Barkhad Abdi (“Captain Phillips”), Jonah Hill (“The Wolf of Wall Street”) and Michael Fassbender (“12 Years a Slave”) are all more deserving; it’s that Leto fails to transcend portraying a queer stereotype, which was tired in the 1990s, and now has him misrepresenting an entire community in 2014. It’s not necessarily Leto’s responsibility to be an advocate for anyone, but beyond the failings of “Dallas Buyers Club” itself, this season has shown that Leto is fairly clueless when it comes to the supposed human beings he’s playing.
Will win: Jared Leto
Could Win: Barkhad Abdi
Should win: Abdi
Best Actress
Another sealed deal, the Best Actress race rests in the hands of the unbeatable Cate Blanchett, who evoked everything from Blanche DuBois to a modern-day millennial in her role in “Blue Jasmine,” playing a 1-Percenter who’s plummeted from grace and scrambling to pick up the pieces. Naysayers have mocked Blanchett’s baldfaced abundance of “technique,” but that’s part of the charm of the performance. Employing a certain vaudevillian quality, as one of my peers put it, she knows precisely how to play this role in all its tragicomic contradictions, turning herself into an emotional ping-pong ball of self-destruction. Blanchett’s competition, if she has any, is Amy Adams, who’s riveting in her greatest role, as Sydney, in “American Hustle,” and eclipses the fine, yet inferior, work of Judi Dench (“Philomena”), Sandra Bullock (“Gravity”) and Meryl Streep (“August: Osage County”).
Will win: Cate Blanchett
Could win: Amy Adams
Should win: Blanchett
Best Actor
While “Dallas Buyers Club” star Matthew McConnaughey has gobbled up more precursor trophies than any of his competitors, this category may not be as locked up as many would think. Playing a homophobic AIDS patient, McConnaughey enters the ceremony as the front-runner, having lost a good 30 pounds. and put himself through the emotional wringer. But there are new whispers of Leonardo DiCaprio possibly sneaking in for the victory, steamrolling the field for his controversial, yet electrifying, turn in “The Wolf of Wall Street.” Also boasting supporters are “12 Years a Slave” heartbreaker Chiwetel Ejiofor, and grizzled, seasoned “Nebraska” lead Bruce Dern. (However solid in “American Hustle,” Christian Bale should just be thankful he rode in on his well-received movie’s coattails.) But Oscar-watchers should still put their money on McConnaughey, who’ll be joining his less-worthy co-star in the winner’s circle.
Will win: Matthew McConnaughey
Could Win: Leonardo DiCaprio
Should win: McConnaughey
Best Director
Though Martin Scorsese (“The Wolf of Wall Street”) and Alexander Payne (“Nebraska”) are both consistent Academy favorites, the contest for Best Director is among three men: David O. Russell (“American Hustle”), Steve McQueen (“12 Years a Slave”) and Alfonso Cuarón (“Gravity”). Though Russell has also become an Oscar darling, having previously been nominated for “The Fighter” and “Silver Linings Playbook,” odds are the historical weight of McQueen’s horror show and the, well, gravity of “Gravity” will trump Russell’s chances. That leaves McQueen and Cuarón, whom many have been predicting will be part of a Picture/Director split, leaving one filmmaker with a trophy for himself and the other with a trophy for his creation. McQueen may have on his side the exposure of America’s ills, but Cuarón’s virtuoso technical achievement is unlikely to go unrewarded.
Will win: Alfonso Cuarón
Could Win: Steve McQueen
Should win: David O. Russell
Best Picture
Oscar buffs should ready themselves for a little post-show outrage on Monday morning, for despite all the (perhaps overly optimistic) impulses to declare a win for “12 Years a Slave,” there’s simply no getting past the logic that “Gravity” is the odds-on Best Picture favorite. This minimalistic sci-fi spectacle, which proved accessible to all while remaining a dazzling bit of art, scared off no voters in the way that McQueen’s epic did, and it also has the support of virtually every technical branch, awards from which it’s poised to collect by the armful. (Remember: While different disciplines individually nominate their peers, everyone votes for the Oscar winners.) This is sure to be an incredibly close race, so close that the other nominees — “Her,” “Nebraska,” “The Wolf of Wall Street,” “Philomena,” “Dallas Buyers Club,” “Captain Phillips” and “American Hustle”— needn’t even be assessed, but it in the end, what will matter is which film lands in first, second or even third place on most voters’ preferential ballots. And, at this point, that film is “Gravity.”
Will win: “Gravity”
Could Win: “12 Years a Slave”
Should win: “Her”
Other Predictions:
Best Original Screenplay: “Her”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “12 Years a Slave”
Best Film Editing: “Gravity”
Best Cinematography: “Gravity”
Best Original Score: “Gravity”
Best Original Song: “Happy” from “Despicable Me 2”
Best Foreign Language Film: “The Great Beauty”
Best Documentary Feature: “20 Feet from Stardom”
Best Animated Feature: “Frozen”
Best Sound Mixing: “Gravity”
Best Sound Editing: “Gravity”
Best Costume Design: “The Great Gatsby”
Best Makeup & Hairstyling: “Dallas Buyers Club”
Best Art Direction: “The Great Gatsby”
Best Documentary Short: “The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life”
Best Animated Short: “Mr. Hublot”
Best Live-Action Short: “Helium”
Contact the South Philly Review at editor@southphillyreview.com.
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