Oscar predictions 2015

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When the 2015 Oscar nominations were announced in January, the Academy, which just last year gave its top prize to the black-centric period drama “12 Years a Slave,” took a ton of flack for selecting a whitewashed roster of talent, snubbing “Selma” director Ava Duvernay and failing to nominate a single actor of color for the first time in two decades. The announcement launched a sociopolitical debate (and yielded the Twitter hashtag #OscarsSoWhite), but as always, the nominations reflected more about the politics within the Academy itself than within our society at large.

For example, “Selma” distributor Paramount reportedly neglected to distribute an ample amount of screeners to voters, meaning fewer were able to see the film. Thus, the Martin Luther King Jr. biopic, though nominated for Best Picture, is unlikely to win. It’s a shame its chances seem lower than those of fellow nominees “The Imitation Game” and “The Theory of Everything,” two more biopics that are well-acted, but generally milquetoast — tailor-made for “Academy tastes,” but lacking personality.

A better pair of nominated movies is “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” the best film ever made by whimsical auteur Wes Anderson, and “Whiplash,” a stunningly tight debut from budding director Damien Chazelle. Both would be more deserving than the other films listed above, as well as Clint Eastwood’s “American Sniper,” a movie that, while not the jingoistic exercise some liberal viewers are painting it to be, lacks the unique punch to reach the finish line.

In all likelihood, the Best Picture race will come down to a wrestling match between “Boyhood” and “Birdman,” two movies that have both been celebrated for their grand ambitions. Filmed over 12 years, “Boyhood” is an unprecedented triumph for Richard Linklater, while “Birdman,” Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu’s first dramedy, boasts the virtuoso illusion of being shot in a single take. Both films have their merits, and “Boyhood” seems the safer bet, but their most glaring common thread is the exaltation of male egos, meaning the Academy’s gender problem is arguably worse than its race problem.

Will Win: “Boyhood”
Could Win: “Birdman”
Should Win: “Whiplash”

Other Predictions:

Best Director: Richard Linklater, “Boyhood”
Best Actress: Julianne Moore, “Still Alice”
Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne, “The Theory of Everything”
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood”
Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons, “Whiplash”
Best Original Screenplay: “Birdman”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Whiplash”
Best Cinematography: “Birdman”
Best Costume Design: “Maleficent”
Best Production Design: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Best Editing: “Boyhood”
Best Visual Effects: “Interstellar”
Best Hair and Makeup: “Foxcatcher”
Best Foreign Language Film: “Ida”
Best Original Song: “Glory” from “Selma”
Best Original Score: “The Imitation Game”
Best Sound Editing: “Interstellar”
Best Sound Mixing: “Birdman”
Best Animated Feature: “How to Train Your Dragon 2”
Best Documentary Feature: “Citizen Four”
Best Documentary Short: “Joanna”
Best Live Action Short: “The Phone Call”
Best Animated Short: “Me and My Moulton” 

Contact the South Philly Review at editor@southphillyreview.com.

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