Interesting thing about this time of year: The Oscars and income-tax season are both upon us. They might seem very different, but really, they have quite a bit in common. They’re decided through secret methods nobody seems to know much about. The ones that should get rewarded never do. And last but not least, accountants play a huge part in each process.
This year’s Oscar race promises to be the most interesting in quite some time. Miramax, once the champion of independent films, has two big movies in the Best Picture race: The flashy Chicago and the long-awaited epic Gangs of New York. In the Best Director category, you have a first-timer (Rob Marshall, Chicago), a fugitive (Roman Polanski, The Pianist) and a self-effacing Spaniard who’s as surprised as you to see his name up there (Pedro Almodovar, Talk to Her). But perhaps the one race everybody will be watching is Best Actress, as 2002 has been dubbed by more than one writer as the cinematic Year of the Woman. Here are my picks:
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Best Actress
From a talent standpoint, this is probably the most even category. All these classy ladies earned their spots, even surprise nominee Diane Lane. But when it comes to Oscar, you can’t beat mental illness and a fake nose. That’s why I go with Nicole Kidman this year.
Who will win: Nicole Kidman, The Hours
Who might win: Renee Zellweger, Chicago
Not her night: Salma Hayek, Frida
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Best Actor
This is hands-down the toughest category to call. According to Las Vegas oddsmakers, Daniel Day-Lewis and Jack Nicholson are just about neck-and-neck, with Day-Lewis just edging out Nicholson. I think Adrien Brody could upset both of them with his amazing performance in The Pianist. But it’s basically a two-man race.
Who will win: Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt
Who might win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York
Enjoy the parties: Nicolas Cage, Adaptation
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Best Supporting Actress
The only categories where the usual politics are eschewed for real merit are Best Supporting Actor and Actress. Catherine Zeta-Jones has this hands-down, especially if there’s a Chicago rally.
Who will win: Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago
Who might win: Julianne Moore, The Hours
Just happy to be here: Queen Latifah, Chicago
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Best Supporting Actor
I’d be OK if either Chris Cooper won for Adaptation or Christopher Walken won for Catch Me If You Can. Walken was particularly delightful in the otherwise neglected Steven Spielberg gem. But Cooper already has been raking in the awards all over the place.
Who will win: Chris Cooper, Adaptation
Who might win: Paul Newman, Road to Perdition
Relax, big guy, your time will come: John C. Reilly, Chicago
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Best Director
I would have thought this would be a no-brainer, but Vegas and many experts are torn between Scorsese for Gangs of New York and Marshall for Chicago. The musical seems to be on a roll, but this looks like Scorsese’s year, although I haven’t talked to one person who loved the movie. I certainly didn’t.
Who will win: Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York
Who might win: Rob Marshall, Chicago
Puh-leeze: Pedro Almodovar, Talk to Her
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Best Picture
This is one category where things are not as sure as they used to be. Remember 1998 winner Shakespeare in Love? But the smart money is on Chicago and I say the Academy goes with the feel-good movie and restricts its praise for Scorsese to Best Director.
What will win: Chicago
What might win: The Hours
One Oscar to rule them all? Not this year, my precious: The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
